What kind of leader do we need for 2010?

In 2009, most corporate leaders have kept their focus on survival--shifting their product mixes, cutting costs, reducing stocks, downsizing. Now, as the economists declare that the economy is stabilizing, many leaders are gearing up for 2010 and trying to take a longer view. What they see looks very different from anything in the past. It's sinking in that this mess won't go away fast.

As Jeffrey Immelt, the chief executive officer of General Electric, has been saying for months, we are not just riding out the difficult downside of a cyclical business fluctuation. We are facing a fundamental reset of the global economy.

From the tops of corporations on down, people are looking at their colleagues with wary eyes. Every top leader today came into his or her position in a world where growth was a fundamental property of the system. In the last few months, many have realised that they don't honestly know which current leaders are fit to lead in this new, different world. Great leaders are asking themselves and their most trusted advisers, "What of my experience, expertise and success should I keep from my past? What do I need to shed? What new capabilities might I need?"

The unvarnished truth is that leaders today fall into three categories:

Leaders who don't want to. These are people in top jobs who could take the leap and lead in new ways in the new environment but who fundamentally don't care to. They are too close to retirement and too successful. Deep down, they know they don't have the energy and drive to undo many of the things they put in place, things that made them very successful in an earlier world. They are working hard to ride it out for the next few years and collect their pensions.

Leaders who probably can't. These are people who are in important positions of leadership, believe they are great leaders and feel they should still be in the top posts--but they lack the skill, breadth of experience, innovativeness and rigor to change at the pace required by a fundamental reset.

Leaders with a good chance. These are the few who have the skill, curiosity, imagination and determination to change, to let go of their sense of entitlement and their obsolete expertise from a world that has vanished and, with the right support and personal discipline, become leaders who will succeed today and in the future.

Heading into 2010, it should be even more obvious than it was a year ago which of your leaders falls into each category.

Everyone, from board chairman and CEO to line manager, needs to assess the people he or she is counting on to deliver in the future. First ask: Who doesn't want to, who probably can't, and who has a good chance? Then ask what you yourself are doing to make sure that the good-chance leaders get the opportunities and support they need so they can step forward and lead?

Along the way, don't forget to take a careful look to see if your don't-want-to and probably-can't leaders are in a position to block your good-chance ones. If so, move them out of the way, fast.

What kind of leader do we need for 2010?